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Beware of Evidence Based on False Investment Assumptions

I have seen/read several "experts" or "pros" who quote stats supporting the widespread use of  selling covered calls a...

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Beware of Evidence Based on False Investment Assumptions

I have seen/read several "experts" or "pros" who quote
stats supporting the widespread use of  selling covered calls as a source of regular income who
keep quoting stats in a way that grinds me wrong.

When it comes to the stock market, pretty  much NOTHING is guaranteed.  Risk is something that can be "managed" but usually not entirely protected  against.

If you have an interest in options trading you may find this post  compelling.......if not you may want to skip ahead to another post.... Just sayin' ")

So, I just wanted to mention that when you look at a quote of a covered call premium that would potentially be paid to you if you sold a covered call at precisely that moment and had your bid honored and accepted and the order filled by your broker.... let's  call that "Premium X"

So....what I see happening is that "experts" who are hyping the advantages of selling covered calls for generating income are taking a brief premium quote and then blindly multiplying that to cover one year span of time, based on the FALSE assumption that this same scenario will exist identically on  a weekly or monthly basis ALL YEAR LONG. Then they face you with a toothpaste smile and say "See how high of a return you can earn just be repeating that pattern for one full year?" They try to entice you by showing you how, based on that one brief quote of "PremiumX" how you can double your money in 18-24months. But I want to ask you. Is that a fair assumption? Can you really take a random call option quote and multiply that by how many trading weeks/months are in the year and use that as a baseline income assumption?

Those kind of false assumptions do not take into account any kind of risk or volatility!!!

If you actually fall for that line of reasoning you are setting yourself up for huge potential losses.
Taking one random quote CAN NOT and SHOULD NOT be used a fair gauge of income generation from a covered call writing strategy. Covered Call writing can and may indeed bring in to your accounts a legitimate cash flow. But it depends on a multitude of very crucial factors.

Permit me to express some of these crucial factors:
1/ what is the current market climate for the underlying equity that you are attempting to write the covered call on ? Does that equity have an "up" season and a "down" season?
2/ Is there a consistent demand for options on that equity, or is the demand hard to predict?
3/ Companies sometimes go through extended years of negative  returns, which harshly impact any kind of positive uptrend in share pricing. How will your covered call writing be affected by a tanking stock price that  lasts more than a year?
4/ If the market for options dries up for a certain equity, are you willing to pivot and change your income strategy? Do you have enough funds to re-position and try options trading again, but with a new position on a different equity?
5/ Do you have an exit strategy if/when a trade takes an unexpected turn?
6/ What is the P/E ratio for the equity that you are writing covered calls on?
7/ Do you really understand the risks of trading options on really volatile equities with "unknown" fundamentals?
8/ Do you have other sources of income if/when you make an error of judgement? Even seasoned traders occasionally make a clerical error that can cause a loss in income. Seasoned traders know too well when their emotions have gotten the best of them and they know when it is time to walk away from trading for the rest of the day and start again on a new day.
9/ Do you have the wisdom to manage your positions on a regular basis? Selling options for consistent income requires managing your positions. One should not just "set it and forget it" if you want to protect your investments.

Markets ebb and flow. Prices of equities flow up and down and sideways. Sometimes they go bust.
Sometimes options prices are so volatile that even regular traders have a hard time following their movement and timing their trades in a consistently profitable pattern.

That  is why, it is not prudent or logical to  say that writing covered calls is Always a great idea based on the numbers gleaned from one random option premium plucked from one potential trade on one possible trading day.

There are a million different things that can affect your ability to get the price you want to collect for a covered call premium. There are also a million different  things that can happen to the underlying equity that you are writing your covered call on.

In some parts of life, blind optimism can be a great asset. Not so with financial matters. It always pays to be prepared for every possible scenario that can unfold in the markets and to be able to be flexible enough to adjust your strategy to take advantage of up markets, down markets, and sideways markets.

When something, especially in the financial world sounds too good to be true.....it just may be too good to be true. Don't just question the statistics that "experts" quote. Question how and when the statistics were collected. You can't just measure potential options trades based on one random happy sunny trading day. One also needs to prepare for those days when the clouds roll in and the profits are harder to find.

 Just take a closer look at what happened to most equity prices in the 2008 recession.  Big dips happen. Prices can take as many as 4 years or more to bounce back from a big dip. I am not trying to depress you. I am simply trying to suggest that we all need to prepare for the rainy seasons as well as for the days filled with sunshine.

In peaceful productivity,

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Protecting your Personal Power

This post may be a little bit "out there".
On that note,.....if you can't relate to it...then just keep moving along and perhaps pass it on to someone who can use it.

What I want to talk about today is how one can protect one's personal power.... specifically from a woman's perspective....because that is the only perspective I can reasonably speak from.

So,  over my lifetime,thus far, I have noticed a few habits and practices which I  perceive to help people stay focused and retain their personal power in order to achieve their personal goals.
Consider one on the list....or consider all.

1/ Not eating in front of strangers. Eating in public opens you up in a way that no other activity does.
When you are going for a walk,  and bring  along a snack....you may want to wait to nibble on your snacks only when you are out of eyeshot of others who may be walking by.

Eat with those you love. You trust them. They protect you and your goals.

2/ Covering your head..... As a woman, especially if I am out in public, i have found myself to stay more focused and covered and powerful if I cover my head with some kind of hat or scarf. This also applies to when attending worship services in public. I am not saying this idea is a "must" but that I have noticed that it does have a way of protecting my personal power.

3/ Covet and protect your own decision making power by doing something unexpected and completely originating from your own set of written goals, at least once a week. It may be something unusual like walking backward while carrying weights when you go pick up the mail at the community mail box....Or it may be something very ordinary, but still "you-ish" such as painting your front yard planter in bright red. These kind of activities tell the world that you are in charge of your own destiny and that you will never back down from accomplishing your own goals in your own way and in your own time.

4/ Be ok with standing alone with your goals. This is very key. Many of us live in situations or work in work atmospheres that are not conducive  or   encouraging toward our life's goals. It is IMPERATIVE that you keep yourself on track to acheive your own written goals....NO MATTER what it takes. Take  your written list of goals with you in your wallet or purse and recite them aloud on your way to work. Or record a verbal recording on your personal cell phone of you speaking your written list of goals out loud. Listen to your list discreetly whenever is reasonable throughout your work day. Perhaps you may even have to hide in the bathroom at work just to protect a brief 60 second chunk of time in order to listen to or speak out your written list of goals. Keep your list in a handy location that you can find easily all day and every day. Protect that  list. Laminate it if you wish. I am currently storing my list in a zip lock baggy in my purse. I recite my goals every day.

5/ Protect your ears from useless public "free" media that does not help you on your journey to accomplishing your goals. What do I mean by this "free" media?
Radio....time and space wasting . Why clutter up your commute with auditory trash? Why not deliberately choose what you listen to on your way to work or other appointents? You can take audio books or take your own recordings of your fave documentaries to listen to as you travel throughout your week days.
Hack your auditory zone. Fill it with libraries full of positivity and empowerment.

TV. Although many  TV Stations are not free, especially if you pay for a hefty cable or streaming TV web service, we still need to be reminded that when we watch TV, often we are allowing the TV station managers to choose the programming that will occupy potentially huge chunks of our leisure time. You CAN manage your time. It is God's greatest gift to you.

Well that is all for now. I pray that this post will give some clarity to your efforts to protect your own personal power.


Wednesday, May 1, 2019

FANG Stocks

So if you like the stock market, you've probably heard about the stocks known
by the acronym: FANG
which represents, if i am correct....

Facebook  (FB)
Apple        (AAPL)
Netflix       (NFLX)
Google       (GOOG)(GOOGL)

What do you think of each item on that list?
One thought I had today, is that which would you describe as predominantly an "app"?
If I really reduce each stock down to it's bare bones, I think that yes, three of the above on the list
began their economic journey's as App-based companies.... yes, software based entities.

The only company on this list that is not known predominantly as an "app" is  the company
known as "Apple". (AAPL)
Apple's brand is associated with its hardware even more than it is known for it's software. It has a beautiful blend of both in it's unique  niche market. I find it amazing to note that as of today's market close, Apple's market cap was at $946.2 billion dollars. That's almost a trillion dollar valuation. Wow.
All four companies on FANG list have multi billion dollar market caps. Incredible chunks of the worldwide economy. It is not only Americans who have vested interest in these enormous economic powerhouses....as they are a global phenomenon.

Well that's all for now. I do so enjoy just thinking aloud with you.